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Moore’s Law, Fuller’s Theory, Kurzweil’s Law, and Thiel’s Theory

Moore’s Law

Dr. Gordon E Moore earned a Bachelor of Science in Chemistry from University of California and a Ph.D in Physical Chemistry from California’s Institute of Technology. Soon after, he cofounded Fairchild Semiconductor, where he was the director of research and development. In 1965, he developed and proposed what would become ‘Moore’s Law’, which predicted that developments in technology would be exponential. After 55 years, the prediction is still sound, as the advancement of technology continuously increases with the price of its development decreasing.

Fuller’s Theory

Buckminster Fuller spent the twentieth century developing innovative technologies to find solutions to inexpensive and environmentally friendly inventions, such as his ‘Dymaxion House, Car, Bathroom, and Deployment Units’. Fuller, also, pioneered various sustainable and cost-effective designs, like his Geodesic Dome structure by finding inspiration in natural occurrences. Fuller created the ‘Knowledge Doubling Curve’, a theory which explains that information and knowledge are forever increasing with failures and discoveries. Fuller made it his life’s work to prove that, as knowledge expands and develops, exponentially growing populations will be able to counteract the idea that resource growth is linear; therefore making necessary resources scarce, implying problems with resources are inevitable, as predicted by Thomas Malthus. The idea that the continuous, exponentially increasing knowledge and technological advances can help advance societies and promote equality amongst all humans’ quality of life.

Kurzweil’s Law

The idea that technological advancements are exponential, but specific paradigms eventually reach their limits and are replaced by new ones is known as Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns. Ray Kurzweil developed the Law of Accelerating Returns amongst many various other theories in the advancement of artificial intelligence; with 20 doctorates, three honorary achievements from three U.S. presidents, published seven books, and developments of text-to-speech technologies, Kurzweil is more than certified in predictions of technological paradigms. In 2001, Kurzweil described the progress of advances in technology as continuously doubling each generation, after a 1990 prediction of computer intelligence outsmarting a chess player in 1998 – which was deemed true in 1997.

Thiel’s Theory

Peter Thiel cofounded the billion dollar company, PayPal, as well as invests in and is an active board member in Facebook. As a critic of the usage of modern day technology, Thiel created the ‘The End of the Future’ theory to advocate for further advances in various other fields, rather than the development of computers. Thiel argues that companies who have pioneered modern technology have the potential to improve the lives of billions, yet focus mainly on profit and have become stagnant in development of beneficial technologies. He not only critics mass markets, but Thiel criticizes society’s value on surpassing peers in merit, rather than putting worth in collaboration to advance education, critical thinking, and knowledge to innovate society and quality of life.

Similarities and Differences Between Theories

All of theories proposed discuss the exponential development in technologies and how such innovations have greatly impacted society, while only a few criticize the effective use of the technology. Kurzweil’s Theory of Accelerating Returns is based on the consistency and accuracy of Moore’s Law, but offers a more probable outcome of various paradigms. Kurzweil approaches technological advancements in a more practical way, as developments can potentially reach an end by nature. Fuller’s Knowledge Doubling Curve acknowledges that society has the ability to advance through the availability of knowledge, while Thiel proposes that no amount of knowledge can change the amount of fervor a society has to create mass, beneficial change in equity among all.

Interesting Aspects of the Theories

In my opinion, I find Fuller’s ‘Knowledge Doubling Curve’ and Thiel’s ‘End of the Future’ theories most interesting. They both address that with the invention of the internet and increase in globalization, the unlimited amount and availability of knowledge is most powerful in developing the quality of life of individuals and promotes equality among them. Although, I believe Thiel’s theory is more pragmatic and acknowledges socioeconomic problems among a group that are more relevant to modern times. As Fuller had been, I am a big proponent in learning new things and further developing knowledge to understand the world in a better way and make it a better place, but I feel I share the same concerns Thiel has when it comes to the ability a society has as a whole to fix problems and promote equity among individuals.

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