Moore’s Law, Fuller’s Theory, Kurzweil’s Law, and Thiel’s Theory

Moore’s Law

Dr. Gordon E Moore earned a Bachelor of Science in Chemistry from University of California and a Ph.D in Physical Chemistry from California’s Institute of Technology. Soon after, he cofounded Fairchild Semiconductor, where he was the director of research and development. In 1965, he developed and proposed what would become ‘Moore’s Law’, which predicted that developments in technology would be exponential. After 55 years, the prediction is still sound, as the advancement of technology continuously increases with the price of its development decreasing.

Fuller’s Theory

Buckminster Fuller spent the twentieth century developing innovative technologies to find solutions to inexpensive and environmentally friendly inventions, such as his ‘Dymaxion House, Car, Bathroom, and Deployment Units’. Fuller, also, pioneered various sustainable and cost-effective designs, like his Geodesic Dome structure by finding inspiration in natural occurrences. Fuller created the ‘Knowledge Doubling Curve’, a theory which explains that information and knowledge are forever increasing with failures and discoveries. Fuller made it his life’s work to prove that, as knowledge expands and develops, exponentially growing populations will be able to counteract the idea that resource growth is linear; therefore making necessary resources scarce, implying problems with resources are inevitable, as predicted by Thomas Malthus. The idea that the continuous, exponentially increasing knowledge and technological advances can help advance societies and promote equality amongst all humans’ quality of life.

Kurzweil’s Law

The idea that technological advancements are exponential, but specific paradigms eventually reach their limits and are replaced by new ones is known as Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns. Ray Kurzweil developed the Law of Accelerating Returns amongst many various other theories in the advancement of artificial intelligence; with 20 doctorates, three honorary achievements from three U.S. presidents, published seven books, and developments of text-to-speech technologies, Kurzweil is more than certified in predictions of technological paradigms. In 2001, Kurzweil described the progress of advances in technology as continuously doubling each generation, after a 1990 prediction of computer intelligence outsmarting a chess player in 1998 – which was deemed true in 1997.

Thiel’s Theory

Peter Thiel cofounded the billion dollar company, PayPal, as well as invests in and is an active board member in Facebook. As a critic of the usage of modern day technology, Thiel created the ‘The End of the Future’ theory to advocate for further advances in various other fields, rather than the development of computers. Thiel argues that companies who have pioneered modern technology have the potential to improve the lives of billions, yet focus mainly on profit and have become stagnant in development of beneficial technologies. He not only critics mass markets, but Thiel criticizes society’s value on surpassing peers in merit, rather than putting worth in collaboration to advance education, critical thinking, and knowledge to innovate society and quality of life.

Similarities and Differences Between Theories

All of theories proposed discuss the exponential development in technologies and how such innovations have greatly impacted society, while only a few criticize the effective use of the technology. Kurzweil’s Theory of Accelerating Returns is based on the consistency and accuracy of Moore’s Law, but offers a more probable outcome of various paradigms. Kurzweil approaches technological advancements in a more practical way, as developments can potentially reach an end by nature. Fuller’s Knowledge Doubling Curve acknowledges that society has the ability to advance through the availability of knowledge, while Thiel proposes that no amount of knowledge can change the amount of fervor a society has to create mass, beneficial change in equity among all.

Interesting Aspects of the Theories

In my opinion, I find Fuller’s ‘Knowledge Doubling Curve’ and Thiel’s ‘End of the Future’ theories most interesting. They both address that with the invention of the internet and increase in globalization, the unlimited amount and availability of knowledge is most powerful in developing the quality of life of individuals and promotes equality among them. Although, I believe Thiel’s theory is more pragmatic and acknowledges socioeconomic problems among a group that are more relevant to modern times. As Fuller had been, I am a big proponent in learning new things and further developing knowledge to understand the world in a better way and make it a better place, but I feel I share the same concerns Thiel has when it comes to the ability a society has as a whole to fix problems and promote equity among individuals.

Resources

Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs

Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs is a theory that describes a specific path to an individual’s self-actualization. The hierarchy consists of five tiers that serve as building blocks to the highest tier, which is the desire to become the most an individual can be. The first four tiers are considered deficiency needs, which are necessary for one to obtain before they can achieve the fifth stage of the hierarchy. Starting with the first and most basic step are one’s physiological needs: water, food, shelter, etc. The next building block that can be obtained when physiological needs are satisfied is safety needs; which consists of health, financial and personal security, ownership of valuables, etc. Continuing up the hierarchy, the third tier is composed of love and belongingness, i.e. intimacy, friendship, and personal connections. The fourth tier is the last of the deficiency needs, including the need for esteem, respect, and freedom. The final stage of the hierarchy is considered a growth need, which is where motivation boosted and needed to obtain self-actualization. Although the model is set up in a way that would convey unidirectional progress, Maslow claims that an individual will fluctuate between stages in their lifetime in a multidirectional progression; these can be due to events that can set an individual back or move them forward without obtaining one need before the other. Another claim Maslow made was that not all individuals can or will obtain self-actualization in their lifetime, with only a two percent probability that the hierarchy can be achieved.

Bloom’s Taxonomy

Bloom’s Taxonomy of Learning Domains describes an individual’s development into higher levels of thinking and problem solving. Just as Maslow’s Hierarchy, the Taxonomy is arranged into a hierarchy, with specific tiers needed to be accomplished in order to advance onto higher ones. Because of this, the hierarchy is different from Maslow’s, as an individual needs to move in unidirectional progress to fulfill higher levels of thinking. The tiers go in order from easiest to hardest, beginning with remembering, understanding, and applying, eventually developing into analyzing, evaluating, and creating. These steps are a part of one of the three domains of learning that were outlined by Bloom and specialists. The three domains are: Cognitive (knowledge), Psychomotor (skills), and Affective (attitude). The cognitive domain contains the hierarchy of six learning developments to higher levels of thinking. The first tier is remembering, where one is able to recall previously learned knowledge. Second, the following tier is understanding the remembered information and being able to comprehend the new knowledge. After comprehending the information, one is able to apply the knowledge to real-world situations. Continuing on to more difficult tiers, analyzing information and being able to distinguish various components of the knowledge is the fourth tier. The fifth tier consists of making judgements on the information, whereas the sixth tier is taking information and creating new meaning with the information.

Wiggins & McTighe Backward Design

The Backward Design for curricula was created by Wiggins and McTighe to encourage growth in understanding knowledge by beginning with the end; it suggests a redesigned sequence for teaching curriculum. Beginning with the first stage, the desired results are meant to be laid out and elaborated on to gain an understanding of what and – most importantly – why students need to learn the subject. In doing so, it alleviates any confusion as to why the student is learning it and how it relates to the standards given by local and state governments. The next step in effectively quantifying how the students have learned the material is to ensure they understand and are proficient in. Continuing, the third stage is planning activities and instruction to help encourage understanding and proficiency. The second and third stages would most likely require Bloom’s Taxonomy to be able to plan and execute the assessments in an effective way, so that the student does not just learn the material to perform well on testing of knowing the information. By taking into account Bloom’s Taxonomy, educators and instructors would be able to successfully convey and teach information to students in a way that develops acquisition of knowledge to higher levels of learning; in doing so, the students would be able to evaluate situations and create new ways of thinking to be open to different perspectives.

“LEARNING IS NOT ATTAINED BY CHANCE, IT MUST BE SOUGHT FOR WITH ARDOR AND ATTENDED TO WITH DILIGENCE.”

ABIGAIL ADAMS

“ANY FOOL CAN KNOW. THE POINT IS TO UNDERSTAND.”

ALBERT EINSTEIN

“ANYONE WHO STOPS LEARNING IS OLD, WHETHER AT TWENTY OR EIGHTY.”

HENRY FORD

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